May 18, 2010 10:34 p.m. EDT
(CNN) -- Voters in Kentucky, Arkansas and Pennsylvania decided primary election races Tuesday that had incumbents sweating and ideological activists looking to flex their political muscles in what is shaping up to be a tumultuous election year.Incumbents are put to the test today with big primaries in key states. How will they fare on this anything-goes political playing field? Tune in to CNN tonight for full coverage from the best political team on television only on CNN.
In the night's biggest contest, CNN projects Rep. Joe Sestak is the winner of Tuesday's Senate Democratic primary election in Pennsylvania, defeating five-term incumbent Sen. Arlen Specter.
In the first race called Tuesday night, conservative insurgent Rand Paul -- son of former GOP presidential candidate and Texas Rep. Ron Paul -- defeated Secretary of State Trey Grayson in a Republican primary fight for the seat held by retiring GOP Sen. Jim Bunning.
With more than half the votes counted, Paul had about 60 percent of the total.
Paul, a physician, had the backing of some Tea Party groups and was endorsed by former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. He will face Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway, the projected winner of the Democratic primary, in the November election.
"We've come to take our government back," Paul said in his victory speech. "This Tea Party movement is a message to Washington that we're unhappy and that we want things done differently."
Grayson was the establishment candidate in the race, using the backing of Kentucky's senior senator, Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, to be the early favorite.
McConnell quickly congratulated Paul on his victory and signaled full party support for him in the November Senate race.
"Now Kentucky Republicans will unite in standing against the overreaching policies of the Obama Administration," McConnell said in a statement. "We are spiraling further into unsustainable debt and Kentucky needs Rand Paul in the U.S. Senate because he will work every day to stop this crippling agenda."
In a closely watched Pennsylvania race, less than 500 votes separated five-term incumbent and former Republican Sen. Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak, a retired Navy admiral, in Pennsylvania's Democratic primary.
Sestak at one point trailed Specter by a 2-1 margin in the polls, but he pulled even toward the end and held a razor-thin lead with almost a third of the votes counted Tuesday night.
Specter was a Republican until he crossed party lines to cast a deciding vote on President Obama's stimulus plan. Soon after, he changed parties in the face of plummeting GOP support in his primary battle against Pat Toomey, a former member of Congress and head of the conservative group Club for Growth.
Specter has the backing of the Democratic establishment -- including Obama -- but it's unclear if that support will be enough to put him over the top.
Also in Pennsylvania, Democrat Mark Critz held an early lead over GOP businessman Tim Burns in a special election to fill the House seat formerly held by Democratic Rep. John Murtha, who died in February. Critz worked for Murtha and has vowed to continue his legacy if elected.
"If we wake up on Wednesday morning and we have Sestak beating Specter and we have Burns beating Critz -- that would be a renunciation of the national party and the administration, along with the leaders of Congress," said Joe DiSarro, chairman of the political science department at Washington & Jefferson College in Washington, Pennsylvania.
While Murtha rarely had any serious challenges in his 18 re-election contests, his party doesn't dominate what's considered a socially conservative district that stretches from Cambria County in west-central Pennsylvania to the southwestern corner of the state.
The high-profile race brought big names to the district, with former President Bill Clinton campaigning for Critz and Sen. Scott Brown, R-Massachusetts, appearing on the campaign trail for Burns.
"Is this a referendum on national politics? I think so," DiSarro said. "Is it something that we can say is a prelude to the fall? Oh, yes."
The winner of the special election will have to defend the seat in November.
Heading west to Arkansas, two-term Sen. Blanche Lincoln held an early lead in the Senate Democratic primary over Lt. Gov. Bill Halter, who has the backing of unions and several key progressive groups. Halter has repeatedly blasted Lincoln for not supporting a government-run public option during the congressional health care debate.
Stu Rothenberg, publisher of the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report, says many liberals don't believe Lincoln, a political moderate, has been a strong enough ally for their party. Many political observers, however, question the ability of a more progressive Democrat to win statewide.
Most polls showed Lincoln ahead, but a third candidate could prevent her from winning more than 50 percent of the vote to avoid a runoff, which would prolong the bruising campaign into June.
Whoever wins the Democratic primary will face a strong threat for a GOP takeover of the seat in a state that most experts believe will lean toward Republicans in November. The crowded GOP primary field includes Rep. John Boozman and state Sen. Gilbert Baker.
Arkansas Secretary of State Charlie Daniels said Tuesday that a record 125,000 residents had voted early or absentee in his state's primaries -- an indication of the strong general interest in what is usually a low turnout affair.
Leaders of both parties now agree that 2010 is a tough year for experienced politicians.
"There is no question. There is, at this moment, an anti-incumbent mood," House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-California, recently said.
House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, concurred. This year, "It's politicians beware," he warned.
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